It's continued to be a modest recovery we see some ins and outs of ups and downs but in general we expect it to in the path it's been in the last year modest improvements. So it's modest improvements but when will things kick things forward? Is it to have existing home sellers waiting for the value of the homes to go up? Then decide to put it on the market or is there other factors at play? It's partially due to existing home owners feeling the confidence and sufficient equity in their home to sell and use that to move forward or to buy a new home. It's also the employment market it's essentially giving people more confidence at their own job is secure and their income stream will continue and they can pay that mortgage.
Now with all the people that have invested in the stock market are agonizing of when and how much is the Feds going to raise interest rates? Given their mortgage is in the United States price of long term rates. Is it really going to effect appetite for home buying? If rates go up the short end? No, we don't think so. We think the short end rate is not that deterministic of the long rate. The long rate is determined by the expectations of inflation and by demand of the capital market in general. We don't expect to see much movement in mortgage rates when and if the Feds finally move this year. It's also been the case that even with these these very little mortgage rates we haven't really sparked the housing markets significantly. It has a lot to do with qualification rather than the level of interest rates. There a much more restrictive underwriting standards that's really been where the tightening in the mortgage market has occurred not whether or not rates go up any.
The credit worthiness because those that are still licking their wounds from the mortgage crisis,from the great financial crisis. We touched on the issues of home owners waiting for the values of their home to go up. We've also touched on the employment picture. What about the supply picture in the housing market? There are some supply headwinds out there for new housing. The first one probably is the toughest which is land and lot supply. That's a fairly long term prospect it takes several years for a developer to purchase a piece of ground put in the infrastructure get all the permits and approvals and have those lots available for a builder to build their house on. When that should have occurred several years ago the supply of the lots we need today, credit was really tight. So those developers weren't available to do that and we are somewhat behind in the supply line and lots. Also we are behind in the labor supply. Many of the construction workers left the industry and went to other jobs and we need to track them back. Both of those factors will mean builders will have to pay more for their supplies and consequently will have to raise their prices.